Authors: John Lowry (BBN Systems), Rico Valdez (BBN Systems), and Brad Wood (BBN Systems)
DFRWS USA 2004
Observables of malicious behavior in the cyber realm are derived from intuition or analysis of previous (a-posteriori) events. This creates an untenable situation where cyber defenders are unprepared for novel attacks or malicious behaviors — particularly those expected to be used by sophisticated adversaries. Development of a complete theory of observables with a particular focus on development of a-priori observables is critical to defend against computer network attack and computer network exploitation. Monitoring of a-priori observables will greatly assist in the areas of indications and warnings and attack sensing and warning. Forensic development and analysis of a-priori observables is critical to determine the type of adversary, adversary mission, and ultimately attribution.